https://journal.unpar.ac.id/index.php/Sentris/issue/feedJurnal Sentris2023-06-16T09:43:41+07:00Jeanette Lazuardisentris@unpar.ac.idOpen Journal Systems<div> <div> <p><img style="padding-right: 10px; width: 200px;" src="https://journal.unpar.ac.id/public/site/images/elisabeth/sentris-homepage.png" alt="" height="281" align="left" /></p> </div> <div style="text-align: justify;"> <p>Sentris was declared in 2004 with the objective to facilitate students, especially International Relations students of Universitas Katolik Parahyangan, who are interested in academic writing. Sentris is published twice a year (March-May and October-December), managed and published by KSMPMI (Kelompok Studi Mahasiswa Pengkaji Masalah Internasional) under the supervision of Jurnal Ilmiah Hubungan Internasional and International Relations Department, Parahyangan Catholic University. 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Register with this site</p> <p><a href="https://journal.unpar.ac.id/index.php/Sentris/user/register?source="><strong>GO TO REGISTRATION</strong></a></p> </div>https://journal.unpar.ac.id/index.php/Sentris/article/view/5105Kepentingan Amerika Serikat terhadap Bantuannya dalam Permasalahan Kudeta Militer Myanmar Era Joe Biden2023-03-31T17:13:07+07:00Amanda Khairunissa Yunusamandakhairunissa@gmail.comNindya Raihan Zaninindyaaaraihanzani@gmail.comRihhadatul Aisyaaisyarihhadatul@gmail.comReza Santikareezasantika92@gmail.comSonia Peslikosoniapesliko29@gmail.com<p><em>Myanmar has experienced a democracy crisis and is facing a violent war for human rights by the military junta. The conflict between the military and the victory of Aung San Suu Kyi's party, namely the NLD (National League for Democracy) party, caused Myanmar to experience a coup since February 2021. The human rights urgency of the Myanmar problem caused international institutions and a number of countries such as the United States to help Myanmar in resolving the problem by both providing financial assistance and other government development assistance to Myanmar, through its agency USAID (United States Agency for International Development). The existence of USAID assistance to Myanmar indicates that there are things that encourage US assistance to Myanmar which raises questions; what are the interests of the US through USAID in helping Myanmar. Which questions will be answered in this paper with a historical approach based on the theory of liberalism.</em></p> <p><em><strong>Keywords: </strong></em><span style="font-weight: 400;"><em>Military Coup; liberalism; Myanmar; USAID</em> </span></p> <p><strong>References</strong></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Aida, R. N. (2021, February 12). Kudeta Myanmar, Sebab, dan Apa yang Sebenarnya Terjadi? KOMPAS.Com. https://www.kompas.com/tren/read/2021/02/12/123000265/kudeta-myanmar sebab-dan-apa-yang-sebenarnya-terjadi-?page=1 </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bakry, U.S. (2017). Dasar-Dasar Hubungan Internasional. Jakarta: Kencana </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Devi, K. S. (2014). Myanmar under the military rule 1962-1988. International Research Journal of Social Sciences, 3(10), 46-50. http://www.isca.in/IJSS/Archive/v3/i10/8.ISCA-IRJSS-2014-173.pdf </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Enos, O (2021). Scaling up the U.S. Response to the Coup in Burm (Report No. 3629). The Heritage Foundation. https://www.heritage.org/asia/report/scaling-the-us-response-the-coup-Myanmar </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Hidriyah, S. (2011). Proses Demokratisasi Myanmar Menuju Pemilu Presiden Tahun 2012. P3DI Sekretariat Jenderal DPR RI, Vol. III, No. 24 (December 2011):1-8. http://berkas.dpr.go.id/puslit/files/info_singkat/Info%20Singkat-III-24-II-P3DI-Desember-2011- 60.pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">History | Myanmar | U.S. Agency for International Development. (n.d.). U.S. Agency for International Development. Retrieved August 6, 2021, from https://www.usaid.gov/Myanmar/history </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. (2010). Timeline: US-Myanmar/Myanmar Relations. Timeline: US Myanmar/Myanmar Relations, 32(3), 434–436. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25798870 </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">International Crisis Group (2021). Responding to the Myanmar Coup. https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/b166-responding-to-the-myanmar-coup.pdf . </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Jakarta, E. U. S. (2019, August 8). Lembar Fakta: Amerika Serikat dan ASEAN – Kemitraan Abadi. Kedutaan Besar dan Konsulat AS di Indonesia. https://id.usembassy.gov/id/lembar-fakta amerika-serikat-dan-asean-kemitraan-abadi/ . </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">O.P.R. (2001, February 11). USAID Immediately Redirects $42 Million in Response to the Military. U.S. Agency for International Development. https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press releases/feb-11-2021-usaid-immediately-redirects-42-million-response-military-coup-Myanmar </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">O.P.R. (2021, May 18). United States Announces Nearly $155 Million in New Funding for the. U.S.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Agency for International Development. https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press releases/may-18-2021-us-announces-nearly-155-million-new-funding-Myanmar-bangladesh crisis </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Tarnoff, C. (2018). The Marshall plan: Design, accomplishments, and significance (Vol. 18). Congressional Research Service. </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://www.ethiopianregistrar.com/files/sgp/crs/row/r45079.pdf . </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Toosi, N. (2018, July 31). Trump officials split over punishing Myanmar for atrocities. POLITICO. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/31/myanmar-rohingya-white-house-trump-officials 752730 </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">U.S. Agency for International Development. (2021, July). U.S. Foreign Aid by Country|Myanmar. Foreign Aid Explorer. https://foreignassistance.gov/cd/MMR?implementing_agency_id=1&measure=Obligations&fisca l_year=2017 </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">U.S. Agency for International Development. (2021a, June). U.S. Foreign Aid by Country|Myanmar. Foreign Aid Explorer. https://foreignassistance.gov/cd/MMR?fiscal_year=2020&implementing_agency_id=1&measure =Obligations </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">U.S. Relations With Myanmar. (2021, June 3). United States Department of State. https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-Myanmar/ </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Viotti, P. R dan Mark V. K. (2012)."International Relations Theory:Fifth Edition. (United States: Pearson Education Inc), 129-130. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Who We Are | U.S. Agency for International Development. (n.d.). U.S. Agency for International Development. Retrieved August 6, 2021, from https://www.usaid.gov/who-we-are </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Yazid, N. M. (2015). The theory of hegemonic stability, hegemonic power and international political economic stability. Global Journal of Political Science and Administration, 3(6), 67- 79.https://www.eajournals.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Theory-of-Hegemonic-Stability Hegemonic-Power-and-International-Political-Economic-Stability-1.pdf.</span></p>2023-06-16T00:00:00+07:00Copyright (c) 2023 https://journal.unpar.ac.id/index.php/Sentris/article/view/6545Weak State as a Security Threat: Study Case of El Salvador (2014-2019)2023-04-12T16:32:38+07:00Daphne Andreadaphneandrea05@gmail.comTheresa Aurel Tanuwijaya6092001163@student.unpar.ac.id<p><em><span style="font-weight: 400;">The World Trade Center Attack or 9/11 tragedy has awakened the international community, particularly the United States (US) to sharpen its foreign policy in facing security threats coming from ‘weak states’. One of the most prominent weak states examples that pose a grave threat to other countries are the Northern Triangle Countries of Central America that referred to Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Hence, this paper will discuss the rationale behind US initiatives in dealing with security threats in El Salvador as one of the Northern Triangle Countries. In analyzing the case, the writers will use the weak state concept and national interest concept. The result of this paper finds that El Salvador corresponds to the elements of a weak state and further poses security threats by giving rise to transnational criminal organizations, drug trafficking, and migrant problems in which overcoming those security threats has become US vital national interest. However, we also find that although decreasing security threats and strengthening El Salvador government capacity is highly correlated, strengthening El Salvador governance through the providence of aid and assistance is actually classified as US important national interest.</span></em></p> <p><em><strong>Keywords: </strong><span style="font-weight: 400;">Security threats; Northern Triangle; weak state; El Salvador; national interest</span></em></p> <p> </p> <p><strong>REFERENCES</strong></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ambrus, Steven. “Guatemala: The Crisis of Rule of Law and a Weak Party System.” Ideas Matter,</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">January 28, 2019. https://blogs.iadb.org/ideas-matter/en/guatemala-the-crisis-of-rule-of-law-and-a-weak-party-system/.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Andrade, Laura. Transparency In El Salvador. 1st ed. 1. El Salvador: University Institute for Public Opinion,</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Asmann, Parker. “El Salvador Citizens Say Gangs, Not Government 'Rule' the Country.” InSight Crime, August 19, 2020. </span><a href="https://insightcrime.org/news/brief/el-salvador-citizens-say-gangs-not-"><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://insightcrime.org/news/brief/el-salvador-citizens-say-gangs-not-</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> government-rules-country/. Accessed July 11, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Art, Robert J. A. Grand Strategy for America. Ithaca: Century Foundation/Cornell UP, 2004.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">BBC News Indonesia "Kisah Di Balik MS-13, Salah Satu Geng Jalanan Paling Brutal Di Dunia."</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">BBC News Indonesia. BBC, April 21, 2017.https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/majalah-39663817.Accessed July 11, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs “U.S. Relations With El Salvador - United States Department of State.” U.S. Department of State. U.S. Department of State, April 14, 2021.https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-el-salvador/. Accessed July 11, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Bureau of International Narcotics and Law ENFORCEMENT Affairs: El Salvador Summary -United States Department of State.” U.S. Department of State. U.S. Department of State, February3, 2021. https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-international-narcotics-and-law-enforcement-affairs-work-by-country/el-salvador-summary/.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Central Intelligence Agency. Central Intelligence Agency, July 6, 2021. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/el-salvador/. Accessed July 11, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Dudley, Steven, and Avalos, Silva “MS13 In the Americas: How the World’s Most Notorious Gang Defies Logic, Resists Destruction. National Institute of Justice”, 2018.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“El Salvador Homicides Jump 56 Percent as Gang Truce Unravels.” Reuters, December 30,2014.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-el-salvador-violence-idUSKBN0K81HR20141230.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Eizenstat, Stuart E., John Edward Porter, and Jeremy M. Weinstein. “Rebuilding Weak States.”Foreign Affairs 84, no. 1 (2005): 134. https://doi.org/10.2307/20034213.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">FOXBusiness. “How MS-13, One of America's Most Dangerous Gangs, Is Funded.” Fox Business.Fox Business, April 19, 2017.https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/how-ms-13-one-of-americas-most-dangerous-gangs-is-funded. Accessed July 11, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Fukuyama, Francis.Cornell University Press. Ithaca, USA: Cornell University Press, 2004.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Galdamez, Eddie. “Water Pollution in El Salvador. Getting Worse Every Year.” El Salvador INFO,June 30, 2021. https://elsalvadorinfo.net/water-pollution-in-el-salvador/. Accessed July 11, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Gies, Heather. “Once Lush, El Salvador Is Dangerously Close to Running out of Water.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Environment. National Geographic, May 4, 2021.https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/el-salvador-water-crisis-drought-climate-change. Accessed July 11, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Giedraityte, Ieva. “Empire, Leadership OR Hegemony: US Strategies towards the Northern Triangle Countries in the 21st Century.” Latin American Yearbook – Political Science and International Relations 7 (2019): 175. https://doi.org/10.17951/al.2019.7.175-192.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Government Revenues.” Government Revenues - Countries - List. Accessed August 4, 2021.https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-revenues.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Guatemala: An Assessment of Poverty.” Poverty Analysis - Guatemala: An Assessment of Poverty. Accessed August 4, 2021. </span><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20161225194831/http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/"><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://web.archive.org/web/20161225194831/http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/</span></a></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">TOPICS/EXTPOVERTY/EXTPA/0,,contentMDK:20207581~menuPK:443285~pagePK:148956~piPK:216618~theSitePK:430367,00.html.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Herningtyas, Ratih. "Weak State As A Security Threat: A Case Study Of Colombia." Journal of International Relations 2, no. 2 (2014): 146-156.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Honduras.” World Bank. Accessed August 4, 2021. </span><a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/honduras#:~:text=Honduras%20is%20a%20low%20middle,than%20US%241.90%20per%20day"><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/honduras#:~:text=Honduras%20is%20a%20low%20middle,than%20US%241.90%20per%20day</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Iesue, Laura. “The Alliance for Prosperity Plan: A Failed Effort for Stemming Migration,” COHA, November 21, 2019, https://www.coha.org/the-alliance-for-prosperity-plan-a-failed-effort-for-stemming-migration/. Accessed July 11, 2021</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Indexmundi. “Countries Ranked by Intentional Homicides (per 100,000 People)." Countries ranked by Intentional homicides (per 100,000 people), n.d.,https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5/rankings. Accessed July 11,2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Insight Crime. “Central America Regional Security Initiative (CARSI)." InSight Crime, October 18,2011, https://insightcrime.org/uncategorized/central-america-regional-security-initiative/. Accessed July 11, 2021</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Income Held by Top 20 Percent in El Salvador.” Statista, July 5, 2021.https://www.statista.com/statistics/1075313/el-salvador-income-inequality/.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">International Monetary Fund. “El Salvador: Selected Issues.” IMF Staff Country Reports 16, no. 206 (2016): 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498342346.002.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Interpol "El Salvador." El Salvador, n.d.,https://www.interpol.int/en/Who-we-are/Member-countries/Americas/EL-SALVADOR. Accessed July 11, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Key Issues AFFECTING Youth in El Salvador - OCDE.” Key Issues affecting Youth in El Salvador - OCDE. Accessed August 8, 2021.https://www.oecd.org/fr/pays/elsalvador/youth-issues-in-el-salvador.htm.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Lakhani, Nina. “Gang Violence in El Salvador Fuelling Country's Child Migration Crisis.” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, November 18, 2014.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/18/el-salvador-gang-violence-child-migration-crisis. Accessed July 11, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Life under Gang Rule in El Salvador.” Crisis Group, December 10, 2018. https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/central-america/el-salvador/life-under-gang-rule-el-salvador.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Löwenheim, Oded. “Transnational Criminal Organizations and Security: The Case against Inflating the Threat.” International Journal 57, no. 4 (2002): 513–36. https://doi.org/10.2307/40203690.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Mano Dura: El Salvador Responds to Gangs.” Taylor & Francis. Accessed August 5, 2021.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09614520701628121?journalCode=cdip20.Menjivar, Cecilia, and Andrea Gomez Cervates. “El Salvador: Civil War, Natural Disasters, and Gang Violence Drive Migration.” migrationpolicy.org, May 11, 2021.https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/el-salvador-civil-war-natural-disasters-and-gang-violence-drive-migration. Accessed July 11, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Meyer, Peter J., and Ribando Clare Seelke. Central America Regional Security Initiative: Background and Policy Issues for Congress. Washington, D.C.: Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, 2014.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Michaels, Peter S. Lawless Intervention: United States Foreign Policy in El Salvador and Nicaragua, 6, 7, no. 2 (January 5, 1987). https://doi.org/https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/71463263.pdf.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">OSAC. “El Salvador 2020 Crime & Safety Report,” </span><a href="https://www.osac.gov/Content/Report/b4884604-"><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://www.osac.gov/Content/Report/b4884604-</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> 977e-49c7-9e4a-1855725d032e. Days on July 9, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Overview.” World Bank. Accessed August 4, 2021. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/elsalvador/overview.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Patrick, Stewart. “Weak States and Global Threats: Assessing Evidence of Spillovers.” SSRN Electronic Journal, 2006, 1–31. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.984057. Published by Teresa Romero, and Jul 5. “Gini Coefficient: Wealth Inequality in El Salvador.” Statista,July 5, 2021.https://www.statista.com/statistics/983230/income-distribution-gini-coefficient-el-salvador/.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“Remarks by President Obama after Meeting with Central American Presidents.” National Archives and Records Administration. National Archives and Records Administration. Accessed August 8, 2021. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2014/07/25/remarks-president-obama-after-meeting-central-american-presidents.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Riney, Lt Col Thomas J. “How Is MS-13 a Threat to US National Security? .” AIR WAR COLLEGE AIR UNIVERSITY , February 12, 2009. https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA540139.pdf.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Rivera, Mauricio. “Drugs, Crime, and NONSTATE Actors in Latin America: Latin American Politics and Society.” Cambridge Core. Cambridge University Press, October 12, 2020. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/latin-american-politics-and-society/article/abs/drugs-crime-and-nonstate-actors-in-latin-america/67CF0B66AB8673D0C50F2F99AC93A1B7.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Schneider, Mark. “Where Are the Northern Triangle Countries Headed? And What Is U.S. Policy?”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), July 9, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://www.csis.org/analysis/where-are-northern-triangle-countries-headed-and-what-us-policy.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Seelke, Clare Ribando. “CRS Report for Congress.” El Salvador: Political, Economic, and Social</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Conditions and U.S. Relations, November 18, 2008. https://doi.org/https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/4951ec75e.pdf.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Silva Avalos, Hector. “Corruption in El Salvador: Politicians, Police, and Transportistas.” SSRN, April 2, 2014. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2419174.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Sleinan, Julett Pineda. “Salvadoran Court: Ex-President and Wife Guilty of Illicit Enrichment.” OCCRP. Accessed August 5, 2021. https://www.occrp.org/en/daily/13586-salvadoran-court-ex- president-and-wife-guilty-of-illicit-enrichment.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The United States Department of Justice. “MS-13's Highest-Ranking Leaders Charged with Terrorism Offenses in the United States.”, January 19, 2021. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/ms-13-s-highest-ranking-leaders-charged-terrorism-offenses-united-states. Retrieved July 9, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Transformation Index. “BTI 2020 El Salvador Country Report.” BTI Blog, 2020. https://www.bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report-SLV.html. Accessed July 11, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“U.S. Strategy for Engagement in Central America Results Architecture – Overall Summary.”State.gov. Accessed August 8, 2021. https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/U.S.-Central-America-Strategy-Objectives.pdf.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. “Death Threats and Gang Violence Forcing More Families to FLEE Northern Central America – UNHCR and Unicef Survey.” UNHCR. Accessed August 5, 2021. https://www.unhcr.org/news/press/2020/12/5fdb14ff4/death-threats-gang-violence-forcing-families-flee-northern-central-america.html.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">U.S. Department of Homeland Security, “Combating Gangs,” https://www.ice.gov/features/gangs.Diakses pada 9 Juli 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">USAID, “GENERATING HOPE: USAID IN EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, AND HONDURAS,”https://www.usaid.gov/generating-hope-usaid-el-salvador-guatemala-and honduras. Diakses pada 8 Juli 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">United States General Accounting Office, “EL SALVADOR Military Assistance Has Helped Counter but Not Overcome the Insurgency,” https://www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-91-166.pdf. Retrieved July 8, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement “Combating Gangs.”, January 27, 2021. https://www.ice.gov/features/gangs. Accessed July 9, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Valencia, Robert. “MS-13 and Barrio 18 Gangs Allegedly Employ More People in El Salvador than the Country's Largest Employers.” Newsweek. Newsweek, November 2, 2018.https://www.newsweek.com/ms-13-barrio-18-gangs-employ-more-people-el-salvador-largest-employers-1200029. Accessed July 11, 2021</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Wang, Shaoguang. "China's Changing of the Guard: The Problem of State Weakness." Journal of Democracy 14, no. 1 (2003): 36-42. doi:10.1353/jod.2003.0022.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Weber, Max. “Economy and society: An outline of interpretive sociology. Vol. 1. Univ of California Press, 1978.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Welsh, Teresa. “US to Resume Northern Triangle Aid, Pompeo Says.” devex, 2019.https://www.devex.com/news/us-to-resume-northern-triangle-aid-pompeo-says-95846.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Whelan, Robbie. “Why Are People Fleeing Central America? A New Breed of Gangs Is Taking Over.” The Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones & Company, November 2, 2018. https://www.wsj.com/articles/pay-or-die-extortion-economy-drives-latin-americas-murder-crisis-1541167619. Retrieved July 8, 2021.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Williams, Phil. "Transnational criminal enterprises, conflict, and instability." Turbulent Peace: The challenges of managing international conflict (2001): 97-112.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">World Bank. “Overview.” World Bank, October 9, 2020.https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/elsalvador/overview. Retrieved July 8, 2021.</span></p>2023-06-16T00:00:00+07:00Copyright (c) 2023 https://journal.unpar.ac.id/index.php/Sentris/article/view/6339Masa Depan Gas Alam dan Ekonomi Jerman dalam Konstelasi Perang Rusia-Ukraina2023-04-11T18:21:47+07:00Muhammad Andryan Juliardymuhammad.andryan0130@student.ac.id<p><em>This paper focuses on the implications of the Russia-Ukraine war on Germany's dependence on natural gas supplies imported from Russia, which affects the German economy. Through the theory of dependency, we will analyze whether energy-dependent relationships cause great losses when relations between countries run into problems and how Germany responds to this situation. Russia is currently trying to take control of Ukraine and has begun a military invasion. Meanwhile, Germany, which is a member of the European Union, is experiencing pressure from the European Union to sanction Russia in the form of a natural gas embargo. Losses can be experienced by Germany due to restrictions on the supply of natural gas energy from Russia which affect the productivity of its industry because the German industry is based on natural gas energy imported from Russia. This study shows that Germany is dependent on natural gas energy cooperation from<br />Russia. This dependence affects the economic stability of the German state and Germany's political relations with the European Union. So Germany is looking for ways to not depend on natural gas products and switch to renewable energy. Although at first, it was very difficult for Germany to decide to sanction a natural gas embargo against Russia, Germany decided that it was willing and ready to embargo Russia. This research uses qualitative methodology by means of a literature study to obtain data and information. It is interesting to discuss this topic because of the complexity between Germany towards Russia and the European Union in importing natural gas for the benefit of Germany's economic development.</em></p> <p><em><strong>Keywords: </strong><span style="font-weight: 400;">Germany; Russia; economy; natural Gas; dependency</span></em></p> <p><strong>REFERENCES</strong></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Anderson, R. J. (2008). Europe's Dependence on Russian Natural Gas: Perspectives and Recommendations for a Long-term Strategy. GEORGE C MARSHALL CENTER APO AE 09053 EUROPEAN CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">BDEW. 2019. “Energy Market Germany 2019.” BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschafte. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bhattarai, U., Maraseni, T., & Apan, A. (2022). Assay of renewable energy transition: A systematic literature review. Science of The Total Environment, 155159. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bros, A., Mitrova, T. and Westphal, K. (2017). German-Russian Gas Relations A Special Relationship in Troubled Water. https://www.swpberlin.org/publications/products/research_papers/2017RP13_wep_EtAl.pdf. Diakses pada 18 Oktober 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bundesnetzagentur.de. “Bundesnetzagentur - Aktuelle Lage Gasversorgung - Gasimporte in GWh/Tag,” 2022. https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/_svg/Gasimport e/Gasimporte.html?nn=1077982. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Egan, M. (2022, February 24). Why the Russian invasion will have huge economic consequences for American families. CNN. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/16/economy/russia-ukraineeconomy-inflation/index.html. Diakses pada 27 Oktober 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Eia.gov. (2022). International - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). https://www.eia.gov/international/overview/country/RUS . Diakses pada 28 Oktober 2022. Emmott, R. (2022). EU agrees another 500 million euros for Ukrainian arms. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-seeks-keep-up-support-ukraine-despite-economic damage-2022-07-18/. Diakses pada 23 Oktober 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Fouquet, R. Path dependence in energy systems and economic development. Nat Energy 1, 16098 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016 98 . Diakses pada 28 Oktober 2022. Gehrke, Laurenz, and Hans. “Scholz: Russian Energy Ban Would Mean European Recession.” POLITICO. POLITICO, March 23, 2022. https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-warns against-russia-energy-embargo/. Diakses pada 29 April 2023. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Graabak, I., Korpås, M., Jaehnert, S. and Belsnes, M. (2019). Balancing future variable wind and solar power production in Central-West Europe with Norwegian hydropower. Energy, 168, pp.870–882. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2018.11.068. Diakses pada 15 November 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">IMF. (2022). The Economic Impacts on Germany of a Potential Russian Gas Shutoff. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/07/18/The-Economic-Impacts-on Germany-of-a-Potential-Russian-Gas-Shutoff-520931 . Diakses pada 29 Oktober 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Korovkin, V., & Makarin, A. (2019, June 18). Conflict and Inter-Group Trade: Evidence from the 2014 RussiaUkraine crisis. SSRN. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3397276. Diakses pada 25 Oktober 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Krastev, I., & Leonard, M. (2022, February 9). The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine. ECFR. https://ecfr.eu/publication/the-crisis-of-european securitywhat-europeans-think-about-the-war-in-ukraine/. Diakses pada 24 Oktober 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Lan, T., Sher, G., & Zhou, J. (2022). The economic impacts on Germany of a potential Russian gas shutoff. IMF Working Papers, 2022(144).</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Lanktree, G. (2022, February 26). Businesses in Britain, EU brace for impact of Ukraine conflict. POLITICO. https://www.politico.eu/article/businesses-in-britain-and-europe-brace-forimpact of-ukraine-conflict/. Diakses pada 28 Oktober 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Oecd.org. (2022). Germany Economic Snapshot - OECD. https://www.oecd.org/economy/germany economic-snapshot/ . Diakses pada 29 Oktober 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Reuters. “Factbox: What Happens If Russia Turns off Gas to Germany?” Reuters. Reuters, April 2022. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-happens-if-russia-turns-off-gas-flows germany-2022-03-29/#:~:text=REUTERS%2FMaxim%20Shemetov.&text=Russia%20accounted%20for%2055 %25%20of,Russian%20supplies%20before%20mid%2D2024. Diakses pada 4 May 2023. Spänhoff, B. (2014). Current status and future prospects of hydropower in Saxony (Germany) compared to trends in Germany, the European Union and the World. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 30, pp.518–525. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2013.10.035. Diakses pada 15 November 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The New York Times. “The End of the (Pipe)Line? Germany Scrambles to Wean Itself off Russian Gas (Published 2022),” 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/06/world/europe/germany gas-russia-ukraine.html. Diakses pada 29 April 2023. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Thomas, L., & Strupczewski, J. (2022, February 25). Ukraine crisis will hit economy but EU is ready, officials say. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/eu-ready-take-economicpain imposing-sanctions-russia-2022-02-25/. Diakses pada 24 Oktober 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Welle, Deutsche. “German Energy Crisis: Surviving Winter without Russia.” dw.com. Deutsche Welle, September 22, 2021. Https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-energy-crisis-surviving winter-without-russia/a-59258986. Diakses pada 29 April 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Welle, Deutsche. “Uni Eropa Sepakat Jatuhkan Sanksi Baru Kepada Rusia.” dw.com. Deutsche Welle, June 2022. https://www.dw.com/id/eu-sepakati-sanksi-baru-zelenskyy berterimakasih/a-61994105. Diakses pada 24 Oktober 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Wiseman, P. (2022, March 2). Economic dangers from Russia's invasion ripple across Globe. AP NEWS. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-coronavirus pandemicbusiness-health-9478a9825c9abfde5f6505bd34b2998c. Diakses pada 21 Oktober 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Worldbank.org. (2015). Energy imports, net (% of energy use) - Germany | Data. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.IMP.CONS.ZS?locations=DE. Diakses pada 18 Oktober 2022. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Zukunft Gas. (2022)."Natural Gas in Germany: Facts and Figures for the Year 2021.". Berlin: Zukunft Gas. Diakses pada 16 Oktober 2022.</span></p>2023-06-16T00:00:00+07:00Copyright (c) 2023 https://journal.unpar.ac.id/index.php/Sentris/article/view/6346Small Governing Coalition in Hong Kong and its Impact on Political Freedom 2023-04-11T18:23:36+07:00Trystanto Trystantotrystantosan@gmail.com<p><em>Hong Kong has seen an upheaval in recent years. From the protests over the extradition law to the protests over the National Security Law, these protests are a response to the ever-encroaching hand of Beijing on political rights in Hong Kong. After the National Security Law was implemented, Hong Kong’s freedom was almost gone. One by one, pro-democracy protesters, opposition parliament members, and opposition media are being targeted and repressed. Despite the numerous protests and riots, the Hong Kong SAR government perseveres with little concession to the protesters. Why does the government of Hong Kong decided not to respect Hong Kong’s unique democratic system in China, arguably the system that has brought Hong Kong to one of the most prominent cities in the world for global interactions, and instead wish to turn it into another normal Chinese city? Why does the Hong Kong SAR government almost completely ignore the voice of the Hong Kong people? Using the framework developed by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith in The Dictator’s Handbook, I argue that the small size of Hong Kong’s governing coalition (i.e., the minimum amount of support required for the leader to stay in power) and the ease in which the Chief Executive of Hong Kong rewards her allies play a significant role in this democratic backsliding. Furthermore, while the Western World reacted in outrage over this undemocratic encroachment of Beijing on Hong Kong, I argue that their sanctions on Hong Kong leaders will not play a significant role as the Chief Executive of Hong Kong does not need their support. </em></p> <p><em><strong>Keywords: </strong><span style="font-weight: 400;">Hong Kong; democracy; protests; governing coalition;sanctions</span></em></p> <p><strong>REFERENCES</strong></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Allison, Graham. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape the Thucydides’s Trap? New York: Houghton Miflin Harcourt Publishing Company, 2017. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Associated Press. “Only Hand-Picked Pro-Beijing ‘Patriots’ Get to Vote for Committee That Will Choose Hong Kong’s next Government.” The Globe and Mail, September 19, 2021. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-hong-kong-voters-to-choose-new-election committee-under-pro-beijing/. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">BBC News. “North Koreans Vote in ‘No-Choice’ Parliamentary Elections.” BBC News, March 10, 2019. </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47492747"><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47492747</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bloomberg News. “Xi Finalizes Hong Kong Election Changes, Cementing China Control.” Bloomberg, March 30, 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03- 30/china-to-form-small-group-to-vet-hong-kong-elections-scmp-says. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Candice Chau. “Hong Kong Democratic Party May Breach Security Law If It Tells Members Not to Run in Election, Warns Pro-Beijing Figure.” Hong Kong Free Press, September 6, 2021. </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://hongkongfp.com/2021/09/06/hong-kong-democratic-party-may-breach-security-law if-it-tells-members-not-to-run-in-election-warns-pro-beijing-figure/</span><span style="font-weight: 400;">. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">CBS News. “Hong Kong Protesters Arrested as Trump Vows to Act ‘Powerfully’ against China.” www.cbsnews.com, May 27, 2020. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hong-kong-protesters arrested-riot-police-china-2020-05-27/. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Chen, Jiawen. “Why Economic Sanctions on North Korea Fail to Work?” China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies 03, no. 04 (January 2017): 513–34. https://doi.org/10.1142/s2377740017500300. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Cox, Gary. Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World’s Electoral Systems. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Drezner, Daniel W. “The United States of Sanctions: The Use and Abuse of Economic Coercion.” Foreign Affairs 100, no. 5 (2021): 142–54. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-08-24/united-states-sanctions. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office, and Export Control Joint Unit. “UK Arms Embargo on Mainland China and Hong Kong.” GOV.UK, December 31, 2020. https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-arms-embargo-on-mainland-china-and-hong kong. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;"> Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. “Government Structure.” GovHK, September 2021. </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://www.gov.hk/en/about/govdirectory/govstructure.htm</span><span style="font-weight: 400;">. Grant, Charles. “Russia, China, and Global Governance.” London: Centre for European Reform, 2012. https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Grant_CER_Eng.pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Grundy, Tom. “‘Highly Necessary’: Beijing to Discuss Enacting National Security Law in Hong Kong Following Months of Protest.” Hong Kong Free Press, May 21, 2020. https://hongkongfp.com/2020/05/21/breaking-beijing-to-discuss-enacting-national-security law-in-hong-kong-following-months-of-protest/. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Hathaway, Oona A, and Scott J Shapiro. The Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World. New York: Simon & Schuster Paperbacks, 2017. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Kirby, Jen. “Pro-Democracy Candidates Dominate Hong Kong’s Local Elections in a Rebuke to China.” Vox, November 25, 2019. https://www.vox.com/2019/11/25/20981691/hong-kong district-council-elections-pro-democracy. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Kuo, Lily, and Verna Yu. “Hong Kong Protests: Carrie Lam Denies Offering to Resign.” The Guardian, September 3, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/03/hong-kong protests-carrie-lam-denies-she-considered-resigning. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Leung, Christy. “Extradition Bill Not Made to Measure for Mainland China and Won’t Be Abandoned, Hong Kong Leader Carrie Lam Says.” South China Morning Post, April 2019. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3004067/extradition-bill-not-made measure-mainland-china-and-wont.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Lo, Chloe. “Hong Kong Leader’s Approval Rating Falls to Lowest since Sept.” Bloomberg, February 17, 2021. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/hong-kong-leader-s approval-rating-falls-to-lowest-since-sept. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Low, Zoe. “What Sparked Hong Kong’s Biggest Mass Arrests under National Security Law?” South China Morning Post, January 6, 2021. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong kong/politics/article/3116586/hong-kong-national-security-law-35-plus-ambition-colour. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mahbubani, Kishore, and Jeffery Sng. The ASEAN Miracle: A Catalyst for Peace. Singapore: National University of Singapore Press, 2017. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mahbubani, Kishore. Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy. New York: PublicAffairs, 2020. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mahtani, Shibani, Tiffany Liang, Anna Kam, and Simon Denyer. “Hong Kong’s Pro-Democracy Parties Sweeping Pro-Beijing Establishment aside in Local Elections.” The Washington Post, March 30,2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200330160031/https://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Record-turnout-in-Hong-Kong-election-seen-as-a-14858897.php. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mesquita, Bruce Bueno de, and Alastair Smith. The Dictator’s Handbook : Why Bad Behavior Is Almost Always Good Politics. New York: Public Affairs, 2012. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Olorunnipa, Toluse. “As Trump Puts Partisan Spin on Federal Aid for States, Republicans and Democrats Warn of Coming Financial Calamity.” Washington Post, April 27, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-trump-puts-partisan-spin-on-federal-aid-for states-republicans-and-democrats-warn-of-coming-financial-calamity/2020/04/27/a542f19e 889a-11ea-8ac1-bfb250876b7a_story.html. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Registration and Electoral Office of the Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. “REO : Who May Register / How to Register - Functional Constituencies.” Reo.gov.hk. Accessed October 19, 2021. https://www.reo.gov.hk/en/voter/FC.htm. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Reuters. “U.S. Condemns ‘Unjustified Use of Force’ in Hong Kong: Senior Official.” Reuters, November 18, 2019, sec. Emerging Markets. </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong protests-usa-idUSKBN1XS06A</span><span style="font-weight: 400;">. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">———. “U.S. Condemns China’s New Security Law for Hong Kong, Threatens Further Actions.” Reuters, June 30, 2020, sec. APAC. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china hongkong-security-usa-idUSKBN2412N9. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Roantree, Anne Marie, Greg Torode, and James Pomfret. “Special Report: Hong Kong Leader Says She Would ‘Quit’ If She Could, Fears Her Ability to Resolve Crisis Now ‘Very Limited.’” Reuters, September 3, 2019. </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong protests-carrielam-specialre-idUSKCN1VN1DU</span><span style="font-weight: 400;">. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Sanjaya, Trystanto. “Analyzing the ‘Democracy vs. Autocracy’ Advocacy of the Biden Administration in the Upcoming US-China Great Power Competition from the Perspective of National Interest .” Tamkang Journal of International Affairs 26, no. 4 (2023): 47–98. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Subcommittee on Decision of the National People's Congress on Improving the Electoral System of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. The Amended Annex I and Annex II to Basic Law, LC Paper No. CB(4)703/20-21(01) § (2021). https://www.legco.gov.hk/yr20- 21/english/hc/sub_com/hs102/papers/hs10220210331cb4-703-1-e.pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Tong, Kurt. “Hong Kong and the Limits of Decoupling.” Foreign Affairs, July 26, 2021. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2021-07-14/hong-kong-and-limits-decoupling.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">United Nations Treaty Collection, Joint Declaration of the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Government of the People's Republic of China on the Question of Hong Kong, Vol. 1399, (New York, 1994), 62 </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">United States Department of the Treasury. “Treasury Sanctions Individuals for Undermining Hong Kong’s Autonomy | U.S. Department of the Treasury.” home.treasury.gov, August 7, 2020. </span><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1088</span><span style="font-weight: 400;">. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Weeks, Jessica L.P. Dictators at War and Peace. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2014. Xinhua. “Hong </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Kong Must Be Governed by Patriots.” Global TImes, November 12, 2020. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1206580.shtml. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">香港中联办. “中华人民共和国香港特别行政区基本法附件二香港特别行政区立法会的产生办法和表 决程序.” Hong Kong Liaison Office, March 30, 2021. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h6q6yzNwNXuJZ55bx98lFQ.</span></p>2023-06-16T00:00:00+07:00Copyright (c) 2023 https://journal.unpar.ac.id/index.php/Sentris/article/view/6425What Drives Nuclear-Aspiring States? The Cases of Iran and North Korea2023-03-17T17:31:01+07:00Muhammad Erza Pradana2110412085@mahasiswa.upnvj.ac.id<p><em>Why do states want to acquire nuclear weapons? In other words, what drives nuclear-aspiring states? This is the basic question that the author seeks to address in this research. To do so, this research will focus on two standout cases: Iran and North Korea. By employing structural realism as a tool of analysis, the author argues that it is the structure of the international system that drives both Iran and North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons of their own. Specifically, it is the highly unequal distribution of power both regionally and globally that encourages both states to go nuclear. At the global level, both Iran and North Korea found themselves in hostilities with a much more powerful state, the United States. The hostilities and the fact that the United States is way more powerful increase the fear of being attacked in both countries. Similarly, at the regional level, both states face neighbors that are relatively more powerful and have alliances with the United States. Thus, this imbalance of power and the fear it created in both Iran and North Korea give them great incentive to go nuclear, as nuclear weapons would act as a deterrent against any possible aggression. This research is qualitative and based on the literature study data collection method.</em></p> <p><em><strong>Keywords: </strong><span style="font-weight: 400;">Nuclear proliferation; national security; distribution of capabilities; structural realism</span></em></p> <p><strong>REFERENCES</strong></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Abulof, Uriel. 2014. "Revisiting Iran’s nuclear rationales." International Politics 51(3), 404-415. Albright, David, and Andrea Stricker. 2010. "Iran’s Nuclear Program." In The Iran Primer: Power, Politics, and US Policy, edited by Robin Wright, 77-81. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Pres. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bowen, W.Q., and J. Brewer. 2011. "Iran’s nuclear challenge: Nine years and counting." International Affairs 87(4): 923–943. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Chubin, S. 2007. "Iran: Domestic politics and nuclear choices." In Strategic Asia 2007–08: Domestic Political Change and Grand Strategy, edited by A.J. Tellis, M. Wills and N. Bisley, 301–340. Washington DC: National Bureau of Asian Research. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Cronin, Patrick M. 2008. "The Trouble with North Korea." In Double Trouble: Iran and North Korea as Challenges to International Security, edited by Patrick M. Cronin, 79-89. Wesport: Praeger Security International </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Buszynski, Leszek. 2021. "North Korea's Nuclear Diplomacy." In Routledge Handbook of Contemporary North Korea, edited by Adrian Buzo, -170. Oxon: Routledge. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Donnelly, Jack. 2005. "Realism." In Theories of International Relations, edited by Scott Burchill, Andrew Linklater, Richard Devetak, Jack Donnelly, Christian Reus-Smit Matthew Paterson and Jacqui True, 29-54. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Greitens, Sheena Chestnut. 2020. "Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction." In The Globalization of World Politics: An Introduction to International Relations, by John Baylis, Steve Smith and Patricia Owens, 465-480. Oxford: Oxford University. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Hobbs, Christopher, and Matthew Moran. 2014. Exploring Regional Responses to a Nuclear Iran. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ikenberry, G. John, Michael Mastanduno, and William C. Wohlforth. 2011. "Introduction: unipolarity, state, and systemic consequenses." In International relations theory and the consequences of unipolarity, edited by G. John Ikenberry, Michael Mastanduno and William C. Wohlforth, 1-32. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Jackson, Robert, and Georg Sørensen. 2013. Introduction to International Relations: Theories and Approaches. Oxford: Oxford University Press. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Jackson, Van. 2018. On the Brink: Trump, Kim, and the Threat of Nuclear War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Jørgensen, Knud Erik. 2018. International Relations Theory: A New Introduction. London: Palgrave.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Kaufman, Joyce P. 2021. A Concise History of U.S. Foreign Policy. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Krauthammer, Charles. 1990. "The Unipolar Moment." Foreign Affairs 70(1), 23-33. Mærli, Morten Bremer, and Sverre Lodgaard. 2007. "Introduction." In Nuclear Proliferation and International Security, edited by Morten Bremer Mærli and Sverre Lodgaard, 1-5. Oxon: Routledge. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mearsheimer, John J. 2018. The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities. New Haven: Yale University Press. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">—. 2001. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: WW Norton & Company. Mearsheimer, John J., and Stephen M. Walt. 2007. The Israel Lobby and US Foreign Policy. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Pollack, Jonathan D. 2011. No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security. New York: Routledge. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Popoola, Michael Akin, Deborah Ebunoluwa Oluwadara, and Abiodun A. Adesegun. 2019. "North Korea Nucler Proliferation in the Context of the Realist Theory: A Review." European Journal of Social Sciences 58(1), 75-82. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Porter, Patrick. 2015. The Global Village Myth: Distance, War and the Limits of Power. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Sharma, Anu. 2022. Through the Looking Glass: Iran and Its Foreign Relations. New York: Routledge </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Smith, Shane. 2021. "Nuclear Weapons and North Korean Foreign Policy." In Routledge Handbook of Contemporary North Korea, edited by Adrian Buzo, 141-154. Oxon: Routledge. Tagma, Halit M. E. 2020. "Realism and Iran’s Nuclear Program." In Understanding and Explaining the Iranian Nuclear 'Crisis', by Halit M. E. Tagma and Paul E. Lenze Jr., 65-103. Lanham: Lexington Books. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Tagma, Halit M.E, and Paul E. Lenze Jr. Understanding and Explaining the Iranian Nuclear 'Crisis'. Lanham: Lexington Books, 2020. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Taylor, Steven J., Robert Bogdan, and Marjorie L. DeVault. 2016. Introduction to Qualitative Research Methods: A Guidebook and Resource. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Thomas, Garth. 2017. "</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Realism And Its Impact To The North Korean, South Korean, And Chinese Nuclear Programs (." Master's Thesis. Baltimore, Maryland: Johns Hopkins University, August. Accessed June 27, 2022. https://jscholarship.library.jhu.edu/bitstream/handle/1774.2/60434/THOMAS-THESIS 2017.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Viotti, Paul R., and Mark V. Kauppi. 2012. International Relations Theory. Boston: Longman. Vromen, Ariadne. 2010. "Debating Methods: Rediscovering Qualitative Approaches." In Theory and Methods in Political Science, edited by David Marsh and Gerry Stoker, 249-266. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Waltz, Kenneth N. 1979. Theory of International Politics. Reading: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Inc. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Waltz, Kenneth. 2000. "Structural Realism after the Cold War ." International Security 25(1), pp. 5– 41. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Yonhap News Agency. 2018. N. Korea will not give up nuclear weapons: Mearsheimer . March 20. Accessed May 18, 2023. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20180320010200315.</span></p>2023-06-16T00:00:00+07:00Copyright (c) 2023 https://journal.unpar.ac.id/index.php/Sentris/article/view/5116The Relevance of Human Security Approach in Assessing The Causes and Solutions to Food Insecurity in South Sudan (Case Study: South Sudan 2017 Famine)2022-10-29T11:59:00+07:00Vincentia Vahistha Hirrya Jyalitajyalitav@gmail.com<p><em>Despite South Sudan’s high potential in agriculture and cultivation, food insecurity brought dire consequences to the people’s well-being throughout 2017. The previous research mostly points to the South Sudan ongoing civil war as the main cause of food insecurity but has yet to sufficiently explore the case study using a human security approach. This paper will attempt to analyze the relevance of the human security approach in explaining the primary factor of food insecurity for the South Sudan people during 2017 and how the approach can be used to mitigate the issue. The author argues that the human security approach can reveal the South Sudan government’s lack of prioritization for their people’s well-being in decision-making as the primary factor of food insecurity, which can be mitigated by a people-centered approach in the future decisions of all the relevant actors. The author utilized Ken Booth’s security as emancipation theory as the main perspective in the study alongside Sabine Alkire’s human security concept and Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food security indicators. The main findings confirm the importance of the human security approach in the decision-making of governments and other relevant actors, especially in the context of ensuring food security.</em></p> <p><em><strong>Keywords:</strong><span style="font-weight: 400;"> South Sudan; food Security; human Security; emancipation</span></em></p> <p><strong>REFERENCES</strong></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">African Development Bank (AfDB) Group. “Development of Agriculture.” In South Sudan in Infrastructure Action Plan in South Sudan: A Program for Sustained Strong Economic Growth (Tunisia: AfDB Group, 2013), 133.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Alkire, Sabina. “A Conceptual Framework for Human Security.” Working paper, Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and Ethnicity (CRISE), 2003, </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.580.2805&rep=rep1&type=pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Avis, William. Coping mechanisms in South Sudan in relation to different types of shock. United Kingdom: K4D helpdesk service, 2020. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/bitstream/handle/20.500.12413/15301/801_Coping_Mechani sm_in_South_Sudan_in_relation_to_Different_Types_of_Shock.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Barry, Hannah. “Starving Out the Enemy: Withholding Food Aid as a Tactic of War in South Sudan.” Mapping Politics 8, no. 2 (2017): 59. </span><a href="https://journals.library.mun.ca/ojs/index.php/MP/article/view/1778"><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://journals.library.mun.ca/ojs/index.php/MP/article/view/1778</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;">.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Booth, Ken. “Security and Emancipation,” Review of International Studies 17, no. 4 (October 1991): 313-326. https://www.jstor.org/stable/20097269. </span></p> <p> </p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Booth, Ken. Theory of World Security, edited by Steve Smith. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">de Vries, Lotje and Mareike Schomerus. “South Sudan’s Civil War Will Not End with a Peace Deal.” Peace Review 29, no. 3 (July 3, 2017): 333–40. https://doi.org/10.1080/10402659.2017.1344533. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Diao, Xinshen, Liangzhi You, Vida Alpuerto, and Renato Folledo. “Assessing Agricultural Potential in South Sudan – A Spatial Analysis Method.” In Application of Geographic Information Systems, edited by Bhuiyan Monwar Alam, 139. London: IntechOpen, 2012. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">FAO, IFAD and WFP. The State of Food Security in the World: The multiple dimensions of food security. Rome: FAO, IFAD and WFP, 2013. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3434e.pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">FAO, World Bank. “Transforming Agriculture in South Sudan from Humanitarian Aid to a Development Oriented Growth Path.” Country Investment Highlights. Rome: FAO, World Bank, 2022. https://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan/transforming-agriculture-south-sudan humanitarian-aid-development-oriented-growth-path. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">FAO. Food Security. Rome: FAO’s Agriculture and Development Economics Division (ESA), 2006, http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/faoitaly/documents/pdf/pdf_Food_Security_Cocept_Note .pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and World Food Programme. Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop And Food Security Assessment Mission To South Sudan. Rome: FAO and WFP, 2018. http://www.fao.org/3/i8702EN/i8702en.pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Integrated Food security Phase Classification (IPC). “The IPC Famine: Fact Sheet.” 2020. https://www.fsinplatform.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/IPC_Famine_Factsheet_2020Nov. pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Integrated Food security Phase Classification (IPC). “What is Famine.” Accessed February 1, 2021. http://www.ipcinfo.org/famine-facts/. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. South Sudan Key IPC Findings: January - July 2017. South Sudan: IPC, 2017. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/IPC_South_Sudan_Key%20Messages_Feb 2017.pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Joint Policy Advisory Team (JPAT). Food Security and Initiatives for Resilience In South Sudan. Juba: South Sudan United Nations Country Team Joint Policy Advisory Team, 2017. https://info.undp.org/docs/pdc/Documents/SSD/DLD396%20JPAT%20Food%20Security_3.pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">King, Gary, and Christopher J.L Murray. “Rethinking Human Security.” Political Science Quarterly (2002): 587. https://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/hs-abs.shtml.</span><strong> </strong></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Land Governance for Equitable and Sustainable Development. “Food Security and Land Governance</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Factsheet: South Sudan.” 2016. </span><a href="https://www.landgovernance.org/wp"><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://www.landgovernance.org/wp</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400;"> content/uploads/2019/09/20160627-Factsheet-SouthSudan.pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mayai, Augustino Ting. “Security Sector Spending and Public Safety in South Sudan, 2006– 2018.” African Security Review 29, no.3 (2020): 10. https://doi.org/10.1080/10246029.2020.1813784. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ministry of Agriculture. “AGRICULTURE SECTOR POLICY FRAMEWORK (ASPF): 2012- 2017.” Republic of South Sudan, 2012. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/ssd149325.pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Murphy, Ray. “The United Nations Mission in South Sudan and the Protection of Civilians.” Journal of Conflict and Security Law 22, no. 3 (December 1, 2017): 367–94, https://doi.org/10.1093/jcsl/krx016. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">O’Driscoll, Dylan. Drivers of Malnutrition in South Sudan. Brighton: K4D Research Helpdesk, Institute of Development Studies, 2018. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5c6ec76ded915d4a3d3b23eb/466_Drivers_of_Mal nutrition_in_South_Sudan.pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Plan International. “South Sudan Crisis Forces Girls Out of School.” Accessed February 1, 2021. https://plan-international.org/news/2017-04-25-south-sudan-crisis-forces-girls-out-school. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The World Bank. South Sudan Economic Update. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, 2018. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30294/129303-WP-PUBLIC SouthSudanEconomicUpdateJuly.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Thiong, Daniel Akech. “How the Politics of Fear Generated Chaos in South Sudan.” African Affairs 117, no. 469 (July 20, 2018): 613-635. https://doi.org/10.1093/afraf/ady031. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund. National Budget Brief Fiscal Year 2017/18: Republic of South Sudan. South Sudan: UNICEF South Sudan, 2017. https://www.unicef.org/esaro/UNICEF_South_Sudan_--_2017_--_National_Budget_Brief.pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">United Nations Security Council. Final report of the South Sudan Sanctions Committee's Panel of Experts S/2017/326. New York: United Nations Security Council, 2017, 30. https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B-6D27-4E9C-8CD3- CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_2017_326.pdf. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">United Nations. “The 17 Goals.” Accessed August 6, 2021. https://sdgs.un.org/goals. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Wethes, Sascha and David Bosold. “Human Security in Practice: Canadian and Japanese Experiences.” In Human Security, edited by Taylor Owens, 87-96. California: Sage Publishing, 2013. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237671115_Human_Security_in_Practice_Canadian_an d_Japanese_Experiences. </span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">WFP and African Union. The Cost of Hunger in Africa: Ethiopia 2013. Rome: WFP and African Union, 2013.</span> <span style="font-weight: 400;">https://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/newsroom/wfp263405.pdf?_ga=2.22 4381916.696497991.1628524817-587994483.1628403586.</span></p>2023-06-16T00:00:00+07:00Copyright (c) 2023 https://journal.unpar.ac.id/index.php/Sentris/article/view/6794The Prisoner’s Dilemma: Indonesia and the European Union in Export Commodity Disputes2023-06-15T08:15:29+07:00Kasistha Cantyanitkasistha@gmail.comJason Matthewjason.mtw@gmail.comSesilia Rainaputri Janssesiliaraina@gmail.comAureishia Huangaureishia11@gmail.com<p><em>Nickel ore export ban has been imposed by Indonesia as the leading actor on the global nickel supply chain which created a disruption and has not been perceived well by other countries, especially the European Union (EU) countries. This paper will analyze the implications caused by the export ban to EU countries and the actions following it, including the enactment of the palm oil ban. Starting with the World Trade Organization (WTO) panel, the EU’s strategy of forcing Indonesia to lift the export ban has not yet succeeded. With the tit-for-tat strategy, this paper identifies the EU’s palm oil ban as a form of retaliation for the Indonesian nickel ore export ban. Although the tit-for-tat strategy often is used in a positive-sum game, the conflict between Indonesia and the EU is a negative-sum game with both parties putting their economies at risk.</em></p> <p><em><strong>Keywords:</strong> nickel ore export ban, palm oil ban, tit-for-tat strategy, Indonesia, European Union</em></p> <p><strong>REFERENCES</strong></p> <p> </p> <p>Adam, B., & Ahamat, H. (2022). Indonesia’s Mineral Export Prohibition and Legality of Export Duties Under the GATT Rules. Sriwijaya Law Review, 6(2), 239. </p> <p>https://doi.org/10.28946/slrev.vol6.iss2.1661.pp239-253 </p> <p>Bloomberg. (2022, September 30). Export ban triples nickel investment in Indonesia’s Morowali. Mining Weekly. https://www.miningweekly.com/article/export-ban-triples-nickel-investment-in indonesias-morowali-2022-09-30 </p> <p>BNamericas - Why nickel prices are rising – and will rema... (2022, March 28). BNamericas.com. https://www.bnamericas.com/en/interviews/why-nickel-prices-are-rising--and-will-remain high#:~:text=The%20main%20point%20that%20will </p> <p>Codingest. (2023, January 16). Threats in Europe, for Indonesian Palm Oil in 2023. BPDP. https://www.bpdp.or.id/en/threats-in-europe-for-indonesian-palm-oil-in </p> <p>2023#:~:text=The%20EU </p> <p>Commodity Watch Indonesia: Zooming In On Nickel, A Valuable Metal With A Bright Future | Indonesia Investments. (2022, June 7). Www.indonesia-Investments.com. https://www.indonesia investments.com/business/business-columns/commodity-watch-indonesia-zooming-in-on-nickel a-valuable-metal-with-a-bright-future/item9521 </p> <p>Decena, K. (2019, May 9). Chinese firms lay out processing facility plans after Indonesian ore export ban. Www.spglobal.com. https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news insights/trending/l19hkna_dqquro-fmklifa2 </p> <p>Dunne, T., Kurki, M., & Smith, S. (2021). International relations theories : discipline and diversity (5th ed., p. 119). Oxford University Press. </p> <p>EU Needs Nickel, But Discriminates Palm Oil. (2021, March 8). Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI IPOA). https://gapki.id/en/news/19858/eu-needs-nickel-but-discriminates-palm-oil European Steel in Figures 2022. (n.d.). In EUROFER. EUROFER. Retrieved January 10, 2023, from https://www.eurofer.eu/assets/publications/brochures-booklets-and-factsheets/european steel-in-figures-2022/European-Steel-in-Figures-2022-v2.pdf </p> <p>Fahalmesta, F. (2022). Indonesia Nickel Crucial metal for low-carbon future (pp. 1–5). Korea Investment & Sekuritas Indonesia. https://kisi.co.id/storage/researchanalysis/August2022/ZuWoIYdDKyucPZU6Zurg.pdf </p> <p>Halm, I. van. (2023, January 10). The nickel price rollercoaster of 2022. Mining Technology. https://www.mining-technology.com/features/nickel-price-surge-2022-markets/ Home, A. (2022, September 30). Column: Indonesia’s nickel surge bad news for price and pricing. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesias-nickel-surge-bad news-price-pricing-2022-09-29/ </p> <p>Huber, I. (2021, December 8). Indonesia’s Nickel Industrial Strategy. Www.csis.org. https://www.csis.org/analysis/indonesias-nickel-industrial-strategy </p> <p>Idris, M. (2021, January 15). Uni Eropa, Gigih Tolak Sawit Indonesia, Tapi Butuh Nikelnya Halaman all. KOMPAS. https://money.kompas.com/read/2021/01/15/203805526/uni-eropa-gigih-tolak-sawit indonesia-tapi-butuh-nikelnya?page=all </p> <p>Kelapa sawit, ancaman perang dagang RI-Uni Eropa dan enam hal lainnya. (2019, March 23). BBC News Indonesia. https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/indonesia-47663602 </p> <p>Lim, B., Kim, H. S., & Park, J. (2021). Implicit Interpretation of Indonesian Export Bans on LME Nickel Prices: Evidence from the Announcement Effect. Risks, 9(5), 93. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9050093 </p> <p>Nainggolan, B., Wijayati, A., Panjaitan, H., Saputra, D. F., & Rahim, R. (2021). ICLHR 2021: Proceedings from the 1st International Conference on Law and Human Rights, ICLHR 2021, 14- 15 April 2021, Jakarta, Indonesia. In Google Books. European Alliance for Innovation. https://books.google.co.id/books?hl=en&lr=&id=5a1jEAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA226&dq=indonesia+nickel+ban+policy+european+union&ots=qdPe9VZPqw&sig=InXkmX Hqfja4EHtRaVncINgkc&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=indonesia%20nickel%20ban%20policy%20european%20union&f =false </p> <p>Nickel for Life. (2019). BKPM. https://www.bkpm.go.id/en/publication/detail/news/nickelforlife#:~:text=Nickel%20potential%20in%20Indonesia </p> <p> </p> <p>Nickel monthly price worldwide 2023. (n.d.). Statista. 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