BUBBLE PROPERTY DI INDONESIA: ANALISIS EMPIRIS SURVEI HARGA PROPERTI RESIDENSIAL

Valerio Fanama; Rulyusa Pratikto

doi:10.26593/jab.v15i2.3679

Authors

Valerio Fanama
Rulyusa Pratikto Universitas Katolik Parahyangan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26593/jab.v15i2.3679

Keywords:

Bubble Property, Indonesia’s GDP, Inflation Rate, Amount of Consumption Credit, LTV Ratio Policy

Abstract

Property is a sector that is very influential for Indonesia’s economy, so Bank Indonesia issued a Residential Property Price Survey to monitor property prices in big cities in Indonesia. The survey is done to monitor the condition of the property to prevent the occurrence of bubble conditions. This study aims to analyse the factors that are suspected to affect property prices in Indonesia, then compare the actual property price index with its fundamental property price index to determine the condition of property in Indonesia. As a result, Indonesia's GDP and inflation rate statistically affect the Indonesia’s House Price Index in all categories, while the amount of consumption credit only has a statistically significant effect on the Indonesia’s House Price Index of Small Houses, and the LTV ratio policy only has a statistically significant effect on the Indonesia’s House Price Index of Large Houses. Furthermore, Indonesia experienced bubble conditions in certain periods, but these conditions were considered harmless, because the bubble rate was not too large, and the bubble condition did not last for a long time.

References

Alika, R. (2018, Desember 17). Sri Mulyani Lihat Sektor Properti Hadapi Dua Tantangan Tahun Depan. Retrieved from Katadata.co.id: https://katadata.co.id/berita/2018/12/17/sri-mulyani-lihat-sektor-properti-hadapi-dua-tantangan-tahun-depan

Aulia, R. B. (2017). Pengaruh Loan to Value Terhadap Harga Properti Residensial.

Azkia, F. (2019, April 10). Rumah Impian Vs Rumah Sesuai Kebutuhan. Retrieved from Rumah.com: https://www.rumah.com/berita-properti/2019/4/179055/rumah-impian-vs-rumah-sesuai-kebutuhan

Bachdar, S. (2018, Februari 14). Tiga Fase Properti Indonesia Periode 2010-2017. Retrieved from Marketeers.com: https://marketeers.com/tiga-fase-properti-indonesia-periode-2010-2017/

Bank Indonesia. (2012). Surat Edaran No.14/10/DPNP.

Bank Indonesia. (2013). Surat Edaran No.15/40/DKMP.

Bank Indonesia. (2015). Peraturan Bank Indonesia Nomor 17/10/PBI/2015. Rasio Loan to Value untuk Kredit Properti, Rasio Financing to Value untuk Pembiayaan Properti, dan Uang Muka untuk Kredit atau Pembiayaan Kendaraan Bermotor.

Bank Indonesia. (2016). Peraturan Bank Indonesia Nomor 18/16/PBI/2016. Rasio Loan to Value untuk Kredit Properti, Rasio Financing to Value untuk Pembiayaan Properti, dan Uang Muka untuk Kredit atau Pembiayaan Kendaraan Bermotor.

Bank Indonesia. (2018). Peraturan Bank Indonesia Nomor 20/8/PBI/2018. Rasio Loan to Value untuk Kredit Properti, Rasio Financing to Value untuk Pembiayaan Properti, dan Uang Muka untuk Kredit atau Pembiayaan Kendaraan Bermotor.

Bank Indonesia. (n.d.). BI 7-Day (Reverse) Repo Rate. Retrieved Agustus 10, 2019, from www.bi.go.id: https://www.bi.go.id/en/moneter/bi-7day-RR/data/Contents/Default.aspx

Bank Indonesia. (n.d.). Data Inflasi. Retrieved Agustus 10, 2019, from www.bi.go.id: https://www.bi.go.id/id/moneter/inflasi/data/Default.aspx

Bank Indonesia. (n.d.). Survei Harga Properti Residensial di Pasar Primer. Retrieved Agustus 10, 2019, from www.bi.go.id: https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/survei/harga-properti-primer/Default.aspx

Bank Indonesia. (n.d.). Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter. Retrieved from bi.go.id: https://www.bi.go.id/id/moneter/transmisi-kebijakan/Contents/Default.aspx

Bank Indonesia. (n.d.). www.bi.go.id. Retrieved from Kamus Bank Sentral Republik Indonesia: https://www.bi.go.id/id/Kamus.aspx?id

Case, K. E., Fair, R. C., & Oster, S. M. (2004). Principle of Economics (Vol. 10). Pearson.

Egert, B., & Mihaljek, D. (2007). Determinant of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe. Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlement.

Fauzia, M. (2018, Juli 3). Agar Harga Properti Tak Melambung Akibat Kebijakan LTV, BI Lakukan Ini. Retrieved from Kompas.com: https://ekonomi.kompas.com/read/2018/07/03/085215626/agar-harga-properti-tak-melambung-akibat-kebijakan-ltv-bi-lakukan-ini?page=all

Grover, R., & Grover, C. (2014). Property Bubbles - a transitory phenomenon. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 32(2), 208-222.

Himawan, A. (2018, Februari 8). Pertumbuhan Properti RI Sangat Dipengaruhi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi. Retrieved from Suara.com: https://www.suara.com/bisnis/2018/02/08/112000/pertumbuhan-properti-ri-sangat-dipengaruhi-pertumbuhan-ekonomi

Igan, D., & Kang, H. (2011). Do Loan to Value and Debt to Income Limits Work? Evidence from Korea. International Monetary Fund.

Kementerian Perdagangan Republik Indonesia. (n.d.). Produk Domestik Bruto. Retrieved from Kemendag.go.id: https://www.kemendag.go.id/id/economic-profile/economic-indicators/gross-domestic-product

Kok, S. H., Ismail, N. W., & Lee, C. (2017). The Sources of house price changes in Malaysia. Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 11(2), 335-355.

Kyle, R., Baird, F., & Spodek, M. (2013). Property Management (Vol. 9). DF Institute.

Levitt, S. D. (1994). Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research.

Mankiw, G. N., & Taylor, M. P. (2014). Economics, 3rd Edition. Cengage Learning.

Olivia, G. (2019, Juni 23). Kemkeu: Tujuan besar insentif properti adalah mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Retrieved from Kontan.co.id: https://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/kemkeu-tujuan-besar-insentif-properti-adalah-mendorong-pertumbuhan-ekonomi

Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (n.d.). Statistik Perbankan Indonesia. Retrieved from ojk.go.id: https://www.ojk.go.id/id/kanal/perbankan/data-dan-statistik/statistik-perbankan-indonesia/default.aspx

Suseno, & Aisyah, S. (2009). Inflasi. Seri Kebanksentralan, 22.