Persepsi Ancaman dan Respons Amerika Serikat di Arktik terhadap Polar Silk Road
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26593/sentris.v5i2.8504.154-170Abstract
Tiongkok membentuk kebijakan Polar Silk Road (PSR) di tahun 2018. PSR dimaksudkan untuk mendorong pembangunan ekonomi positif antara Tiongkok dan negara-negara kawasan Arktik. Meskipun begitu, eksistensi PSR tetap dipandang sebagai ancaman untuk Amerika Serikat (AS) karena Tiongkok juga memiliki hubungan kooperatif dengan Rusia di kawasan Arktik. Keadaan tersebut mengakibatkan AS menghadapi dua ancaman: (1) persaingan ekonomi AS-Tiongkok; dan (2) kerja sama militer Tiongkok-Rusia. Dengan demikian, artikel ilmiah ini berupaya untuk menganalisis secara mendalam terkait persepsi ancaman AS atas eksistensi PSR, bagaimana ancaman tersebut mendorong respons dan tindakan AS di Arktik, beserta implikasinya terhadap stabilitas kawasan. Penggunaan kerangka teori power transition dipilih untuk menjelaskan respons AS terhadap PSR melalui tiga indikator: (1) ancaman dan dilema keamanan; (2) perimbangan kekuatan; serta (3) perdamaian dan perang. Power transition menjelaskan terkait eksistensi ancaman yang mendorong AS untuk melakukan perimbangan kekuatan melalui respons-responsnya seperti memberikan donor ekonomi dan penguatan aliansi di kawasan. Teori ini juga menekankan pentingnya tingkat perimbangan kekuatan yang diberikan AS, karena bentuk perimbangan dalam tingkat ekstrem akan menyebabkan eskalasi militer dan instabilitas kawasan. Maka dari itu, berdasarkan teori power transition, langkah paling strategis yang dapat diimplementasikan AS adalah dengan melakukan perimbangan kekuatan dalam tingkat rendah sehingga stabilitas Arktik tetap terjaga.
Kata kunci: Polar Silk Road, Arktik, Rivalitas AS-Tiongkok-Rusia, Transisi Kekuatan
China established the Polar Silk Road (PSR) policy in 2018. The PSR aims to build positive economic developments between China and the Arctic states. Nonetheless, China’s involvement in the PSR is still perceived as a strategic threat by the United States (the U.S.), due to China’s cooperative relationship with Russia in the Arctic. This leaves the U.S. facing two threats: (1) US-China economic competition; (2) China-Russia military cooperation. Consequently, this article aims to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the U.S. threat perceptions regarding China’s PSR, how these threats drive the U.S. responses and actions in the Arctic, along with the implications for regional stability. Power transition theory is used to explain the U.S. response to the PSR through three indicators: (1) threats and security dilemma; (2) balance of power; and (3) peace and war. Power transition explains the existence of threats that drive the U.S. to pursue a balance of power through its responses, such as providing economic aid and strengthening alliances in the region. This theory also emphasizes the importance of the U.S. maintaining a balanced power level, as an extreme form of balance may result in military escalation and regional instability. Therefore, according to power transition theory, the most strategic measure that the U.S. can implement is to maintain a low level of balance of power in order to ensure Arctic stability.
Keywords: Polar Silk Road, Arctic, The US-China-Russia Rivalry, Power Transition
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