Testing Theories of the Determinants of An Individual Foreign Policy Preferences in Georgia

Angguntari C. Sari

Abstract


Abstract

Public opinion has an impact on states’ foreign policy. In the case of Georgia, the pro-Russian or pro-United States attitude among the people is determined by several factors. The strategic value of Georgia for these two most powerful states in the world makes their study of the mass opinion’s preferences toward major power an interesting and a valuable one. In this article, I test two sets of factors that shape the individual preferences toward major powers, and employ logistic regression model to explain the relationship between four independent variables with the dependent variable. I argue that religiosity, role of government, and economic satisfaction are still the best predictors of the pro-Russian policy.

Key words: Georgia, public opinion, Russia, United States, logistic regression

Abstrak

Kebijakan luar negeri suatu negara dipengaruhi oleh pendapat para masyarakatnya. Pertanyaannya adalah apa yang mempengaruhi pandangan masyarakat mengenai kebijakan yang selayaknya diambil oleh pemerintah? Artikel ini meneliti faktor-faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi pandangan masyarakat di Georgia mengenai rekan ideal bagi negara mereka. Georgia sendiri merupakan negara yang memiliki nilai strategis bagi negara besar seperti Rusia dan Amerika. Oleh karenanya, kajian mengenai determinan opini publik mengenai siapa diantara kedua negara besar tersebut yang layak menjadi mitra Georgia penting untuk dilakukan. Melalui metode kuantitatif, khususnya pendekatan regresi logistik, artikel ini berusaha melanjutkan penelitian yang terdahulu. Penelitian sebelumnya melihat korelasi antara faktor agama, peran pemerintah, dan kepuasan ekonomi dengan pilihan masyarakat terhadap mitra kerjasama luar negeri Georgia. Satu hal yang luput dari penelitian sebelumnya adalah peran nilai politik. Berdasar analisa melalui model regresi logistik, faktor agama, peran pemerintah, dan kepuasan ekonomi masih menjadi faktor penentu utama pilihan masyarakat Georgia mengenai siapa diantara Amerika dan Rusia yang dianggap ideal menjadi mitra hubungan bilateral negara mereka.

 

Kata kunci: georgia; opini publik; rusia; amerika; regresi logistik.



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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.26593/jihi.v13i2.2542.91-103

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