Testing Theories of the Determinants of An Individual Foreign Policy Preferences in Georgia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26593/jihi.v13i2.2542.91-103Abstract
Abstract
Public opinion has an impact on states’ foreign policy. In the case of Georgia, the pro-Russian or pro-United States attitude among the people is determined by several factors. The strategic value of Georgia for these two most powerful states in the world makes their study of the mass opinion’s preferences toward major power an interesting and a valuable one. In this article, I test two sets of factors that shape the individual preferences toward major powers, and employ logistic regression model to explain the relationship between four independent variables with the dependent variable. I argue that religiosity, role of government, and economic satisfaction are still the best predictors of the pro-Russian policy.
Key words: Georgia, public opinion, Russia, United States, logistic regression
Abstrak
Kebijakan luar negeri suatu negara dipengaruhi oleh pendapat para masyarakatnya. Pertanyaannya adalah apa yang mempengaruhi pandangan masyarakat mengenai kebijakan yang selayaknya diambil oleh pemerintah? Artikel ini meneliti faktor-faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi pandangan masyarakat di Georgia mengenai rekan ideal bagi negara mereka. Georgia sendiri merupakan negara yang memiliki nilai strategis bagi negara besar seperti Rusia dan Amerika. Oleh karenanya, kajian mengenai determinan opini publik mengenai siapa diantara kedua negara besar tersebut yang layak menjadi mitra Georgia penting untuk dilakukan. Melalui metode kuantitatif, khususnya pendekatan regresi logistik, artikel ini berusaha melanjutkan penelitian yang terdahulu. Penelitian sebelumnya melihat korelasi antara faktor agama, peran pemerintah, dan kepuasan ekonomi dengan pilihan masyarakat terhadap mitra kerjasama luar negeri Georgia. Satu hal yang luput dari penelitian sebelumnya adalah peran nilai politik. Berdasar analisa melalui model regresi logistik, faktor agama, peran pemerintah, dan kepuasan ekonomi masih menjadi faktor penentu utama pilihan masyarakat Georgia mengenai siapa diantara Amerika dan Rusia yang dianggap ideal menjadi mitra hubungan bilateral negara mereka.
Kata kunci: georgia; opini publik; rusia; amerika; regresi logistik.
References
References
Baum,Matthew A. and Phillip B.K. Potter. 2008. “The Relationship Between Mass Media, Public Opinion And Foreign Policy:Towarad A Theoretical Synthesis”. Annual Review of Political Science 11:39-65.
Cichowski, Rachel. 2000. “Western Dreams, Eastern Realities: Support for European Union in Central and Eastern Europe”. Comparative Political Studies 33(10): 1243–78.
Chan, Steve, and William Safran. “Public Opinion as a Constraint against War: Democracies’ Responses to Operation Iraqi Freedom”. Foreign Policy Analysis Vol.2 (2):137-156.
Caucasus Research Resource Centers, Georgia .2011. “Knowledge and attitudes toward the EU in Georgia, 2011. http://caucasusbarometer.org/en/eu2011ge/downloads/ .(April 30,2011)
Responses to Operation Iraqi Freedom”. Foreign Policy Analysis Volume 2(2): 137-156.
European Commission. “EU Charter of Fundamental Rights”. http://ec.europa.eu/justice/fundamental-rights/charter/index_en.htm (April 30,2017)
Ehin, Piret .2001. “Determinants of Public Support for EU Membership: Data from the Baltic Countries”, European Journal of Political Research 40(1): 31–56
Eshbaugh-Soha, Matthew and Christopher Linebarger. 2014. “Presidential and Media Leadership of Public Opinion on Iraq”. Foreign Policy Analysis 10(4); 351-369.
Klingemann, Hans-Dieter, Dieter Fuchs, and Jan Zielonka ,eds. 2006. USA:Routledge.
Levitsky, Steven and Lucan Way. 2010. Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes after the Cold War. Cambridge University Press
Monogan III, James E.2015. Political Analysis Using R. USA: Springer.
Nowak, Andrej, Jacek Szamrej and Bibb Latane .1990. “From Private Attitudes to Public Opinion: A Dynamic Theory of Social Impact”. Psychological Review 97(3): 362–76.
Powlick, Philip J., and Andrew Z. Katz. 1998. “Defining the American Public Opinion/Foreign Policy Nexus. Mershon International Studies Review 42,29-61
Schimmelfenning, Frank .2001. ‘The Community Trap: Liberal Norms, Rhetorical Action and the Eastern Enlargement of the European Union’, International Organisation 55(1): 47–80.
Slomczynski, Kazimierz M. and Goldie Shabad .2003. “Dynamics of Support for European Integration in Post-Communist Poland.” European Journal of Political Research 42(4): 503–39.
Siroky, David S., Alan James Simmons and Giorgi Gvalia .2017. “Vodka or Bourbon? Foreign Policy Preferences Toward Russia and the United States in Georgia”. Foreign Policy Analysis, 0: 1-19.
Siroky, David S., Alan James Simmons and Giorgi Gvalia .2017. “Replication Data for: Vodka or Bourbon? Foreign Policy Preferences Toward Russia and the United States in Georgia”. https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/A3HBWB (April 30, 2017)
Cosmina Tanasoiu, Constantin Colonescu. 2008. “Determinants of Support for European Integration”. European Union Politics: SAGE Publications9 (3): 363-377.
Tucker, Joshua, Alexander Pacek and Adam Berinsky.2002. “Transitional Winners and Losers: Attitudes towards EU Membership in Post-Communist Countries.” American Journal of Political Science 46(3): 557–71.
White Stephen, Ian McAllister and Margot Light.2002.“Enlargement and the New Outsiders.” Journal of Common Market Studies 40(1): 135–53.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This journal uses Creative Commons license (CC BY). We allow readers to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of its articles and allow readers to use them for any other lawful purpose. The author must be aware that the article copyrights will be fully transferred to Jurnal Ilmiah Hubungan Internasional only if the article is accepted to be published in the journal through signing of the Copyrights Transfer Agreement. Authors are allowed to resend their manuscript to another journal or intentionally withdraw the manuscript only if both parties (JIHI and Authors) have agreed on the related issue. Once the manuscript has been published, authors are allowed to use their published article under Jurnal Ilmiah Hubungan Internasional copyrights.
